This approach is well-suited for evaluating a player's chances in a tournament. It uses probabilistic modeling and simulation to estimate outcomes, which is practical for individual match evaluation, cumulative path analysis and expected Wins.

What's the UTR

Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) is a measure of a player’s playing level, which is regularly updated. Players are rated on a scale between 1 and 16.5.

UTR gives the greatest weighting to recent match results, taking into account the opponent’s level and the closeness of the score.

UTR scale ranges from 1.00 to 16.50, with higher numbers being better. Solid club players might be rated between 6 and 8 for males or 4 and 6 for females.

For example A beginner has a UTR of 1, while Rafael Nadal is a 16.

Conceptual Breakdown of the Tournament Participation Recommendation Algorithm:

At Sportifs Prometteurs (SP), we support our Athlete to

• Reach at least the semi final and then be challenged
• Win the more match possible

The algorithm aims to evaluate a player's chances of winning or reaching the final based on their Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) in a single-elimination tournament. Here's a detailed explanation of the approach:

UTR Comparison Strategy

The core of the recommendation is based on comparing the player's UTR with other participants' UTRs. Since we're assuming a random draw where any player can face any other player, we'll calculate the probability of success based on UTR comparisons.

Probability Calculation Method

For each potential match, we'll calculate the win probability based on the relative UTR difference. We'll use a probabilistic model that gives higher win chances to players with higher UTRs. The algorithm will simulate the tournament progression by calculating cumulative win probabilities.

Recommendation Criteria

95% or higher chance of winning the tournament: Strong recommendation to participate 80% or higher chance of reaching the final: Recommended participation Below 80% chance of reaching the final: Not recommended to participate

Considerations and Limitations:

• Assumes random draw and equal probability of facing any player
• Uses a simplified probabilistic model based on UTR
• Real-world factors like player form, surface preference, etc., are not considered